全球变暖

Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming

Davis, AJ; Jenkinson, LS; Lawton, JH; et al.

Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants

Root, TL; Price, JT; Hall, KR; et al.

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

Parmesan, C; Yohe, G

Extinction risk from climate change

Thomas, CD; Cameron, A; Green, RE; et al.

全球变暖中的科学问题

赵宗慈，罗勇，王绍武，黄建斌

气候变化国家评估报告（I）：中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势

丁一汇，任国玉，石广玉，等

全球变暖

·编者按·

全球变暖（Global Warming），即全球气候变暖，全球气候在不断的变化，有时暖有时冷，这里专指的是在一段时间中，地球的大气和海洋因温室效应而造成温度上升的气候变化现象。1880—2012年，全球平均地表温度升高了0.85℃。1951—2012年，全球平均地表温度的升温速率（0.12℃/10 a）几乎是1880年以来升温速率的2倍。全球变暖会使全球降水量重新分配、冰川和冻土消融、海平面上升等，不仅危害自然生态系统的平衡，还成为制约人类社会可持续发展的重大问题，甚至威胁人类的生存。全球变暖是气候变化自然变率和人类活动排放温室气体共同作用的结果，升温并不是简单的线性过程。

1998—2012年观测数据显示，尽管大气中的温室气体浓度仍在增加，但全球温度年均值并未明显升高，增暖仅0.05℃（-0.05±0.15℃）/10 a，这一现象也被称为hiatus（“间断”或“停滞”）现象，值得注意的是，据世界气象组织最新报告显示：2011—2015年是有观测记录以来全球最暖的5年，并且2015年是有观测记录以来全球最暖的1年。目前普遍的看法是：1998—2012年的全球变暖趋缓可能是受到自然气候变率的影响，但是从近50年全球气温变化的总趋势上看，仍然处在明显变暖趋势。全球气温的变化受到自然和人类的共同作用，各种作用机制的相对重要性仍需要进一步的定量分析证据；尽管未来还有可能发生类似的全球变暖趋缓事件，但随着温室气体浓度增加，已经持续数十年的全球变暖趋势仍很有可能延续下去。

本专题得到专家赵宗慈教授（清华大学）、沈永平（中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院）的大力支持。

·热点数据排行·

截至 2016年 11月 7日，中国知网（CNKI）和Web of Science（WOS）的数据报告显示，以“全球变暖”为词条可以检索到的期刊文献分别为 8032、 18849条，本专题将相关数据按照：研究机构发文数、作者发文数、期刊发文数、被引用频次进行排行，结果如下。

研究机构发文数量排名（CNKI）

研究机构发文数量排名（WOS）

作者发文数量排名（CNKI）

作者发文数量排名（WOS）

期刊发文数量排名（CNKI）

期刊发文数量排名（WOS）

根据中国知网（CNKI）数据报告，以“全球变暖”等为词条可以检索到的高被引论文排行结果如下。

国内数据库高被引论文排行

国内数据库高被引论文排行（续表）

根据Web of Science统计数据，以“全球变暖”等为词条可以检索到的高被引论文排行结果如下。

国外数据库高被引论文排行

·经典文献推荐·

基于Web of Science检索结果，利用Histcite软件选取LCS（Local Citation Score，本地引用次数）TOP 50文献作为节点进行分析，得到本领域推荐的经典文献如下。

A global assessment of the potential impact of climate change on world food supply suggests that doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will lead to only a small decrease in global crop production. But developing countries are likely to bear the brunt of the problem, and simulations of the effect of adaptive measures by farmers imply that these will do little to reduce the disparity between developed and developing countries.

来源出版物：Nature, 1994, 367(6459): 133-138

Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming

Davis, AJ; Jenkinson, LS; Lawton, JH; et al.

Abstract: Many attempts to predict the biotic responses to climate change rely on the ‘climate envelope’approach, in which the current distribution of a species is mapped in climate-space and then, if the position of that climate-space changes, the distribution of the species is predicted to shift accordingly. The flaw in this approach is that distributions of species also reflect the influence of interactions with other species, so predictions based on climate envelopes may be very misleading if the interactions between species are altered by climate change. An additional problem is that current distributions may be the result of sources and sinks, in which species appear to thrive in places where they really persist only because individuals disperse into them from elsewhere. Here we use microcosm experiments on simple but realistic assemblages to show how misleading the climate envelope approach can be. We show that dispersal and interactions, which are important elements of population dynamics, must be included in predictions of biotic responses to climate change.

来源出版物：Nature, 1998, 391(6669): 783-786

Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants

Root, TL; Price, JT; Hall, KR; et al.

Abstract: Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6°C and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate. Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history, a primary concern for wild species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change. We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift, or‘fingerprint’, in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed, more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant

populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions.

来源出版物：Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 57-60

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

Parmesan, C; Yohe, G

Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a “systematic trend”. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global metaanalyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multispecies data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates “very high confidence” (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

来源出版物：Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 37-42

Extinction risk from climate change

Thomas, CD; Cameron, A; Green, RE; et al.

Abstract: Climate change over the past similar to 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species’distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15%-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (similar to 18%) than mid-range (similar to 24%) and maximum-change (similar to 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

来源出版物：Nature, 2004, 427(6970): 145-148

·推荐综述·

全球变暖中的科学问题

赵宗慈，罗勇，王绍武，黄建斌

引言

全球变暖的问题越来越受到国内外的关注，2013年9月各国政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，IPCC）发布了第一工作组的第五次科学评估报告，2014年陆续发布了第二和第三工作组的第五次气候变化影响与对策的评估报告，9月发布第五次评估报告的综合报告。在IPCC的第五次评估报告中继续明确指出，1880—2012 年观测的全球年平均表面温度（包括陆地和海洋）变暖线性趋势为133 a增暖了 0.85℃（0.65～1.06℃）；自 20世纪中期以来观测到的变暖极可能是（95%～100%）由人类影响造成的，利用地球系统模式考虑未来温室气体等继续排放，将引起进一步的增暖及气候系统的所有分量的进一步变化。由于涉及全球变暖的科学问题较多，如多套全球气温观测资料的差异、不同标准气候态时段的作用、20世纪全球变暖的检测和归因及未来全球气温变化的趋势等，本文对上述几个问题进行综述研究，为未来气候变化的进一步深入研究提供参考。

1 全球变暖中的科学问题

1.1 多套全球气温观测资料的差异

以全球陆地表面气温的观测资料为例，IPCC报告经常评估的全球年平均陆地表面气温的观测资料主要来自英国东英吉利亚大学气候研究所（Climate Research Unit，East Anglia University，UK，CRUTEM4）、全球历史气候网络（Global Historical Climatology Network，GHCN v3）、美国高达空间研究所（Goddard Institute of Space Studies，GISS）和一个新的在美国伯克利的资料组（New Data Group at Berkeley，Berkeley）。4套观测资料计算的5个常用时段全球年平均表面气温的变化趋势和90%信度水平一致表明，近百年全球气候变暖，尤以近50 a变暖明显，而自1979年以来变暖最明显；4套观测资料年平均气温的线性趋势略有差异，气候倾向率约为0.01～0.02℃/10 a；4套观测资料逐年观测值的差异较大，年平均气温差异最大可达 0.2～0.3℃。4套观测资料存在的差异主要是由于观测台站的选取、缺测资料的插补、计算全球平均气温的方法及早期缺乏观测台站的处理方法等原因造成的。因此，未来的研究需进一步“统一”和一致化全球气温观测资料，以缩小观测资料间的差异，从而提高观测资料的质量。

1.2 不同标准气候态时段的平均气温差异

随着观测资料的不断累积和增长，选取不同时段作为参考的标准气候态，其平均温度不同。以各国科学家经常使用的英国东英吉利亚大学气候研究所创建的全球陆地年平均气温观测资料为例，计算不同时段气候态之间的差异，IPCC多次报告一般以1961—1990年30 a作为标准气候态时段，IPCC第一次评估报告以1951—1980年30 a作为标准气候态时段，其相对于1961—1990年全球年平均气温的差值为－0.11℃；世界气象组织（World Meteorological Organization，WMO）在 2003年提出以1971—2000年30 a作为标准气候态时段，其相对于1961—1990年全球年平均气温的差值为0.09℃；IPCC第五次评估报告以1986—2005年20 a作为标准气候态时段，其相对于 1961—1990年全球年平均气温的差值为0.32℃；有研究采用资料的整个时间长度作为标准气候态时段，如将 1850—2010年作为标准气候态时段，其相对于 1961—1990年全球年平均气温的差值为－0.16℃；还有研究以1850—1900年或1986—2005年作为标准气候态时段，两者全球年平均气温的差值高达0.61℃。

综上所述，当研究气候变化时需计算变化值（距平），即需考虑相对于哪个标准气候态时段的气候变化（距平）；也就是说，当不同时段的气候态被选择作为标准气候态，计算的气候变化（距平）结果是不同的。因此，当研究气候变化时，必须要注意是相对于哪个气候态时段的变化。

1.3 地球系统模式模拟的20世纪全球气温变化

第五次耦合模式对比计划（The Coupled Modle Intercomparison Project Phase 5，CMIP 5）中36个地球系统模式及它们的集合平均模拟的 1871—2010年全球年平均表面气温距平，与相应的 3套观测资料（HadCRUT4、GISTEMP和MLOST）进行对比，计算相对于 1961—1990年标准气候态时段的全球年平均地表气温距平的变化。结果表明，对 1961—1990年全球年平均气温的气候态模拟值与观测值进行对比，3套观测资料的全球年平均气温为14.0℃；36个CMIP 5模式集合平均模拟的全球年平均气温为13.8℃，36个模式模拟的全球年平均气温的最低值为 12.6℃，最高值为15.3℃，其中27个模式（约占75%）模拟的全球年平均气温为 13.2～14.3℃，表明多数地球系统模式能较好的模拟标准气候态时段的全球年平均温度，但个别模式（约占25%）模拟值与观测值差异较大。所有地球系统模式均可模拟出由于人类排放增加造成近百年全球温度增加的主要特征，特别是造成近50 a全球明显变暖的特征及主要火山爆发造成短期（几年）的变冷（具有较高的可信度）。引起重视的是，绝大部分地球系统模式及它们的集合平均未模拟出近15 a全球年平均气温增暖减缓（停滞）的趋势，而模拟出继续明显增暖的趋势。有研究计算CMIP 5地球系统模式中的114个模式，有111个模式未模拟出近15 a变暖停滞的现象，造成模拟误差（或偏差）的原因可能是，近15 a人为造成的全球温室气体的排放继续增加，因此地球系统模式模拟的气温继续明显增暖，而CMIP 5模式未合理考虑自然强迫和地球系统内部的反馈与相互作用的复杂过程。因此，CMIP 5模式目前还较难准确的模拟气温的年代际变化特征。

1.4 预估未来全球平均气温

IPCC第五次评估报告指出，大量地球系统模式在考虑人类排放的 4种典型排放路径（Representative Concentration Pathways，RCPs）下，预估21世纪全球年平均气温继续变暖，但需强调以下几个方面：（1）IPCC的五次评估报告利用不同气候模式与不同的人类排放情景，均一致预估未来全球年平均气温继续变暖，但增暖的幅度不同，第五次报告包括约200多个气候模式考虑人类排放的各种情景与方案，如CO2加倍、CO2每年增加1%、IS92方案、温室气体增加、温室气体与硫酸盐气溶胶增加、SRES（排放情景特别报告，Special Report on Emission Scenarios）A1、SRES A2、SRES B1、SRES B2、SRES A1B、RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5等。综合预估结果表明，至21世纪后期全球增温的最佳预估值为 1.0～4.0℃，平均气温变化范围为0.3～6.4℃，可见不同模式和方案的预估值最大相差达几度。

（2）不同气候模式考虑了未来不同人类排放情景，预估21世纪前50 a气温变暖的差异小于21世纪后期。CMIP 5中考虑了4种排放情景21个模式的集合平均预估值和5%～95%模式预估的平均气温可能范围，21世纪中期（2046—2065年）全球变暖1.0～2.0℃，全球平均气温可能变化范围为 0.4～2.6℃；但到 21世纪后期（2081—2100年）全球变暖1.0～3.7 ℃，全球平均气温可能变化范围为 0.3～4.8℃，其不同排放情景的差值远大于21世纪中期。

（3）不同增暖阈值与未来出现时间的关系，CMIP 5模式在RCP不同排放情景下，相对于不同的标准气候态时段（1850—1900年或1986—2005年），预估21世纪初期（2016—2035年）和中期（2046—2065年）全球年平均气温分别增暖1.0、1.5和2.0℃阈值时CMIP 5模式的百分数。不论相对于1850—1900年还是1986—2005年标准气候态，绝大多数模式在所有排放情景下均预估21世纪初期（2016—2035年）全球平均气温增暖将超过 1.0℃；相对于 1850—1900年或 1986—2005年标准气候态时段所有模式在所有排放情景下，预估21世纪初期（2016—2035年）增暖均不超过2.0℃；除RCP 2.6情景，其他3种排放情景在2046—2065年，1/3以上模式预估全球地表平均气温增暖超过2.0℃（相对于 1850—1900年）；由于观测的标准气候态时段1986—2005年全球平均气温比标准气候态时段 1850—1900年平均气温高0.61℃，因此预估21世纪初期或中期相对于后者（1850—1900标准气候态时段），更易达到增暖阈值；相对于低排放情景，高排放情景如RCP 8.5更易达到增暖阈值。

2 结论与展望

（1）多套观测资料分析一致表明，近百余年全球

变暖，但变暖的幅度和趋势随观测资料的不同而略有差异，需进一步提高观测资料的质量。

（2）在研究全球变暖中选择不同时段作为标准气候态时段，需注意不同标准气候态时段的平均气温差异较明显，因此，计算得到的气候变化数值也不同。

（3）CMIP 5气候模式一致模拟出20世纪全球变暖的趋势，但一些模式模拟的标准气候态时段数值与观测值差异较大，多数模式较难模拟出全球平均气温年代际变率，绝大多数模式未模拟出近15 a全球变暖减缓和停滞，由此提出气候模式需进一步改善。

（4）CMIP 5气候模式预估未来由于人类活动全球继续变暖，但由于模式不同及未来排放情景不同，预估的变暖幅度差异较大及出现 2℃阈值的时间不同，再加上系统内部变率的影响及自然外强迫作用，给未来气候变化的预估带来更大的困难。

（5）全球变暖研究中的几个科学问题的提出，需提高全球近百年观测资料的质量，注意不同标准气候态观测平均值的差异对比；需研究近百年全球变暖趋势下的年代际变率的原因和改善模式模拟，进一步研究近15 a全球变暖停滞的原因和修正模式的模拟结果；在未来气温走向的预测与预估中，如何更好的设计人类排放方案，如何考虑自然与人类外强迫的联合作用，如何更全面认识气候系统内部的相互作用和反馈机制，并在气候模式中进行相应的改进与完善等，均需进行深入探究。♦

【作者单位：1. 西北农林科技大学动物科技学院；1. 清华大学地球系统科学研究中心；2. 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室；3. 北京大学物理学院大气海洋系】

（摘自《气象与环境学报》2015年1期）

·高被引论文摘要·

被引频次：1252

气候变化国家评估报告（I）：中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势

丁一汇，任国玉，石广玉，等

中国的气候变化与全球变化有相当的一致性，但也存在明显差别。在全球变暖背景下，近100 a来中国年平均地表气温明显增加，升温幅度比同期全球平均值略高。近100 a和近50 a的降水量变化趋势不明显，但1956年以来出现了微弱增加的趋势。近50 a来中国主要极端天气气候事件的频率和强度也出现了明显的变化。研究表明，中国的CO2年排放量呈不断增加趋势，温室气体正辐射强迫的总和是造成气候变暖的主要原因。对21世纪气候变化趋势做出的预测表明：未来20～100 a，中国地表气温增加明显，降水量也呈增加趋势。

中国气候变化；极端事件；温室气体；气溶胶；辐射强迫；气候预估

来源出版物：气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(1): 3-8

被引频次：665

气候变化科学的最新认知

秦大河，陈振林，罗勇，等

摘要：政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组于2007年2月2日发布的第四次评估报告明确指出，近100 a（1906—2005年）地球表面平均温度上升了0.74℃，近50 a的线性增温速率为0.13℃/10 a，1850年以来最暖的12个年份中有11个出现在近期的1995—2006年。全球变暖已经是不争的科学事实，报告认为人类活动是近50 a全球气候系统变暖的主要原因。IPCC评估报告是国际科学界对气候变化问题最权威、最全面的认识，代表了目前全球气候变化研究的科学认识水平，是国际上制定相关政策的重要依据。

关键词：气候变化；IPCC第一工作组；第四次评估报告

来源出版物：气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(2): 63-73

被引频次：481

中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制

陈隆勋，周秀骥，李维亮，等

摘要：自20世纪20年代以来，中国地区40和90年代出现了2个暖期及50—60年代相对冷期。最近的90年代的最暖年（1998年）或5 a滑动平均气温几乎已达或略高于40年代的最暖年（1946年）或5 a滑动平均气温。变暖最明显是北方地区（黑龙江和新疆北部），而35°N以南和100°E以东地区自50年代以来存在一个以四川盆地为中心的变冷带，虽然90年代有变暖趋势，但基本达到40年代暖期气温。中国降水则以20年代为最少（1929年最少），50年代为多水年代，以后缓慢减少，70年代以后变化不大，但多雨带在80年代及以后由华北南移到长江中下游。1951—1990年，大部分地区气温和降水呈负相关，在东北和长江—黄河间存在2个负相关中心，表明北方是变暖变旱，江淮间是变冷变湿。这些气候变化特征和全球气候变化相比较，除北方外，变暖期明显的滞后于全球变暖，并且出现变冷带等明显差异。文中还综述了用诊断和数值模拟方法对影响中国变化的气候自然变化和人类活动影响（热岛效应和气溶胶影响）的研究结果。我们认为，以上提出的3种人类活动对中国气候变化有明显影响，特别是工农业发展造成的气溶胶增加是四川盆地气温变冷的主要原因。

关键词：中国气候变化；热岛效应；温室效应；气溶胶影响

来源出版物：气象学报, 2004, 62(5): 634-646

被引频次：456

近54年中国地面气温变化

任国玉，徐铭志，初子莹，等

摘要：采用国家基准气候站和基本气象站地面月平均气温资料，在严格质量控制和非均一性订正的基础上，分析了1951年以来中国大陆地区近地表年和季节平均气温演化的时间与空间特征。结果表明，我国近54年来年平均地表气温变暖幅度约为1.3℃，增温速率接近0.25℃/10 a，比全球或半球同期平均增温速率高得多。全国大范围增暖主要发生在近20余年。气温变化的季节差异和空间特征与前人分析结论基本一致，冬季增温速率高达0.39℃/10 a，春季为0.28℃/10 a，秋季0.20℃/10 a，夏季增温速率最小，但也达到0.15℃/10 a。我国20世纪80年代初期开始的明显增暖主要表现在冷季，但进入90年代以来夏季增暖也日趋明显。从区域上看，中国大陆

地区最明显的增温发生在北方和青藏高原地区，而西南的四川盆地和云贵高原北部仍维持弱的降温趋势。值得提出的是，作者给出的结果尚未考虑城镇化对地面气温观测记录的影响。

关键词：地面气温；气候变化；全球变暖；区域气候

来源出版物：气候与环境研究, 2005 (4): 21-31

被引频次：445

森林凋落物动态及其对全球变暖的响应

彭少麟，刘强

摘要：综述了森林凋落物研究的进展，森林凋落物动态的研究随研究方法的改进而不断深化。制约凋落物分解速率的因素有内在因素即凋落物自身的化学物理性质和外在因素即凋落物分解过程发生的外部环境条件，如参与分解的异养微生物和土壤动物群落的种类、数量、活性（生物类因素）和气候、土壤、大气成分等（非生物类因素）。讨论了全球变暖可能引起的凋落物量和凋落物分解的变化。气温上升可能引发植被分布、物候特征和制约凋落物分解因素的改变，影响森林凋落物动态，最终影响森林生态系统物质循环的功能。

关键词：森林凋落物动态；凋落物分解速率；全球变暖；响应

来源出版物：生态学报, 2002, 22(9): 1534-1544

被引频次：380

中国气候与环境演变评估（I）：中国气候与环境变化及未来趋势

秦大河，丁一汇，苏纪兰，等

摘要：近百年来，全球气候正经历着一次以变暖为主要特征的显著变化，全球气候与环境的重大变化对中国的气候与环境演变也产生了重大影响。来自气候、环境、海洋和经济社会科学等领域的百余位专家和学者对中国气候与环境的演变及其对自然生态系统和社会经济部门的影响进行了评估，在此基础上，提出了适应和减缓气候变化的对策。本文主要阐述在全球气候变化背景下中国气候与环境的演变，并对未来气候变化的趋势做出了预测。

关键词：气候变化；环境演变；未来趋势；中国

来源出版物：气候变化研究进展, 2005, 1(1): 4-9

被引频次：359

气候变化科学的最新进展：IPCC第四次评估综合报告解析

秦大河，罗勇，陈振林，等

摘要：政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告综合报告于2007年11月17日在西班牙正式发布。综合报告将温室气体排放、大气温室气体浓度与地球表面温度直接联系起来，综合评估了气候变化科学、气候变化的影响和应对措施的最新研究进展。综合报告指出：控制温室气体排放量的行动刻不容缓；能否减小全球变暖所带来的负面影响，将在很大程度上取决于人类在今后二三十年中在削减温室气体排放方面所作的努力和投资。这对国际社会和各国政府制定经济社会发展政策，适应和减缓气候变化有一定的指导和促进作用。

关键词：气候变化；IPCC第四次评估报告；综合报告

来源出版物：气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(6): 311-314

被引频次：350

全球气候变化下中国农业的脆弱性与适应对策

蔡运龙

摘要：全球气候变化问题虽然还存在某些不确定性，但已得到广泛认同。对气候条件颇为敏感的农业将受影响，主要效应可概括为：① 农业地理限制的变动；② 作物产量的变化；③ 对农业系统的冲击。中国农业对气候变化与波动尤其敏感，加之人口压力进一步加大和农业资源已很紧缺，粮食自给的能力将受到严重威胁，必须充分重视适应和调整对策的研究。变动性与不确定性是气候的固有特征，在评价全球气候变化对农业的影响时应该认识到这点。本文还提出了减少农业对气候变化脆弱性的建议。

关键词：气候变化与波动；农业影响；中国农业；适应对策

来源出版物：地理学报, 1996 (3): 202-212

被引频次：291

近百年全球气候变暖的分析

王绍武，叶瑾琳

摘要：本文对比分析了IPCC，Vinnikov，Jones及Hansen的北半球，南半球及全球共2个地面温度序列，以及中

国的气温序列。资料为1880—1991年。近百年气候变暖的速度为0.5℃/100 a。温度的长期变化趋势占序列总方差60%以上。但气候变暖有突变性，在1890年代中，1920年代中及1970年代末有3次突然气候变暖。分析表明，总的变暖趋势CO2浓度及太阳活动有密切关系。火山活动也可能有一定作用。但前两次突然变暖可能与火山活动沉寂有关。最后一次突然变暖则可能是温室效应加剧的结果。

关键词：气候变暖；气候突变；温室效应

来源出版物：大气科学, 1995, 19(5): 545-553

被引频次：237

1951—2003年中国气温和降水变化及其对干旱的影响

翟盘茂，邹旭恺

摘要：利用1951—2003年606个台站的气象观测资料，对中国53 a来的气候变化和干旱特征进行了分析。结果表明：我国的干旱面积在气候变暖背景下总体上趋于增加，但变化趋势不显著。干旱变化的区域差异较大，东北、华北和西北东部干旱呈显著增加的趋势。降水量是我国干旱变化的最主要的因素。

关键词：中国；气候变化；降水；气温；干旱

来源出版物：气候变化研究进展, 2005 (1): 16-18

被引频次：3775

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

Parmesan, C; Yohe, G

Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a “systematic trend”. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘signswitching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/ large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates “very high confidence” (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

来源出版物：Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 37-42

被引频次：2789

Extinction risk from climate change

Thomas, CD; Cameron, A; Green, RE; et al.

Abstract: Climate change over the past similar to 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species’distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15%-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (similar to 18%) than mid-range (similar to 24%) and maximum-change (similar to 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

来源出版物：Nature, 2004, 427(6970): 145-148

被引频次：2016

Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants

Root, TL; Price, JT; Hall, KR; et al.

Abstract: Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 degreesC and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate. Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history, a primary concern for wild

species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change. We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift, or‘fingerprint’, in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed, more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions.

来源出版物：Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 57-60

被引频次：1741

Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

Cox, PM; Betts, RA; Jones, CD; et al.

Abstract: The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon–climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a “business as usual” scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr-1is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models2, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4

K without the carbon-cycle feedback.

来源出版物：Nature, 2000, 408(6809): 184-187

被引频次：1487

The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset - A new era in climate change research

Meehl, GA; Covey, C; Delworth, T; et al.

Abstract: A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model

analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding our understanding of how the climate system currently works, and how it may change in the future.

来源出版物： Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2007, 88: 1383-1394

被引频次：1476

Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate changeand food security

Lal, R

Abstract: The carbon sink capacity of the world's agricultural and degraded soils is 50% to 66% of the historic carbon loss of 42 to 78 gigatons of carbon. The rate of soil organic carbon sequestration with adoption of recommended technologies depends on soil texture and structure, rainfall, temperature, farming system, and soil management. Strategies to increase the soil carbon pool include soil restoration and woodland regeneration, no-till farming, cover crops, nutrient management, manuring and sludge application, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, agroforestry practices, and growing energy crops on spare lands. An increase of 1 ton of soil carbon pool of degraded cropland soils may increase crop yield by 20 to 40 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) for wheat, 10 to 20 kg/ha for maize, and 0.5 to 1 kg/ha for cowpeas. As well as enhancing food security, carbon sequestration has the potential to offset fossilfuel emissions by 0.4 to 1.2 gigatons of carbon per year, or 5% to 15% of the global fossil-fuel emissions.

来源出版物：Science, 2004, 304(5677): 1623-1627

被引频次：1428

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Allen, CD; Macalady, AK; Chenchouni, H; et al.

Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world’s forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

来源出版物：Forest Ecology and Management, 2010, 259(4): 660-684

被引频次：1401

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Moss, RH; Edmonds, JA; Hibbard, KA; et al.

Abstract: Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential

consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

来源出版物：Nature, 2010, 463(7282): 747-756

被引频次：1311

Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming

Held, IM; Soden, BJ

Abstract: Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response, as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO2, and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lowertropospheric water vapor.

来源出版物：Journal of Climate, 2006, 19(21): 5686-5699

被引频次：1220

Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth

Vorosmarty, CJ; Green, P; Salisbury, J; et al.

Abstract: The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

来源出版物：Science, 2000, 289(5477): 284-288

·推荐论文摘要·

1979—2014年全球变暖背景下青藏高原气候变化特征

段安民，肖志祥，吴国雄

摘要：近几十年来全球变暖受到越来越广泛的关注，然而全球变暖从1998年开始趋缓，但青藏高原却呈现加速增暖的趋势。本文基于前人研究，系统回顾了青藏高原气温、积雪、降水和大气热源等四方面在全球变暖背景下的变化，指出高原的加速增温导致了积雪迅速融化，降水明显增多的同时，高原热源却呈现减弱趋势。

关键词：全球变暖；青藏高原；气候变化；加速

来源出版物：气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12(5): 374-381

联系邮箱：段安民，amduan@lasg.iap.ac.cn

全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温变化的新特征

郑然，李栋梁，蒋元春

摘要：利用1971—2011年青藏高原81个站点经均一化处理的气温资料，采用面积权重方法对青藏高原近41年气温变化的特征进行了研究。结果表明，青藏高原在1997年存在更为明显的增暖突变，落后于华北（1989年）、东北（1987年）8～10年，比西南、华南（1996年）和华东、西北（1994年）落后1～3年。高原内部的突变发生过程与高原地形有明显的关系，表现为海拔越高，突变发生越晚。此外，突变前后的增暖形式也存在一定的差别，即突变前增暖幅度随海拔的升高而减小，突变后则表现为海拔越高气温倾向率越大，且通过了99%的显著性检验。突变前后高原增暖幅度最大均在冬季，突变后秋、冬季增暖幅度有所减小，夏季有所增大。相比全球近15年增暖趋缓现象，高原在突变后表现为更大幅度的增暖，高原气温与全球气温的同期波动形态相似，两者具有较好相关性。

关键词：青藏高原；气温；面积权重；M-K检验；海拔

来源出版物：高原气象, 2015, 34: 1531-1539

联系邮箱：李栋梁，lidl@nuist.edu.cn

全球变暖中的科学问题

赵宗慈，罗勇，王绍武，等

摘要：2013年各国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组发布了第五次气候变化科学评估报告，以大量的观测分析和气候模式模拟证据，继续强调由于人类排放增加，全球正在变暖，未来将继续变暖的观点。本文综述分析全球变暖的几个深层次的科学问题，即多套全球气温观测资料的差异、不同标准气候态时段的作用、20世纪全球变暖的检测和归因及未来全球气温变化的趋势，以此提出需进一步研究的科学问题。结果表明：需要进一步提高观测资料的质量；注意不同标准气候态时段对应数值的不同；应进一步改善气候模式模拟年代际变率的能力及研究近15 a全球变暖减缓和停滞的原因，从而改善气候模式的模拟效果；造成预估未来全球气候变化的不确定性主要来自气候模式的差异、未来排放情景的差异及气候系统内部变率的影响和自然外强迫的作用。

关键词：全球变暖；科学问题；IPCC

来源出版物：气象与环境学报, 2015, 31(1): 1-5

联系邮箱：赵宗慈，zhaozongci@ tsinghua.edu.cn

全球气候变化谈判的回顾与展望

万怡挺，常捷

摘要：近几十年以来全球正在经历以全球变暖为突出标志的气候变化。《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》的签订是全球气候变化的里程碑。全球温室气体规制形成及其后续谈判的过程可以看出，全球气候变化问题的日益突出导致了全球温室气体国际规制的逐步趋严。随着温室气体国际规制的趋严，温室气体的排放权不再是一项免费的公共资源。这已经成为具有全球共识的大趋势，也是全球经济发展中的一个重大新变量，将对全球各国自身的温室气体规制和经济发展产生深远的影响。2015年是全球气候变化谈判的关键一年，各方为取得谈判成功正在加大协调和准备的努力。

关键词：全球气候变化谈判；回顾；展望

来源出版物：环境与可持续发展, 2015, 40(2): 30-32

中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示

葛全胜，方修琦，郑景云

摘要：气候变化的社会影响是当前全球变暖影响研究的

一个重要领域。以古鉴今，历史上应对气候变化的经验和教训可以为现代人类应对以全球变暖为突出标志的气候变化挑战提供宝贵的借鉴。总结中国历史气候变化对社会影响研究领域的成果，归纳得到了历史时期气候变化对中国社会发展影响的若干认识及其对适应未来气候变化的启示。主要结论是：历史气候变化影响的总体特征是“冷抑暖扬”，但影响与响应存在区域差异；社会经济的衰落与百年尺度的气候由暖转冷呈现同期性，与暖期相伴的社会快速发展会增加社会对资源、环境需求的压力，导致社会脆弱性加大；历史上应对气候变化策略因时、因地、因主体而异；而以政府为主导的主动因地制宜适应是应对气候变化的有效策略。

关键词：历史时期；气候变化影响；中国

来源出版物：地球科学进展, 2014, 29(1): 23-29

联系邮箱：葛全胜，geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn

气候变化科学与人类可持续发展

秦大河

摘要：政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）自2007年发布第四次评估报告（AR4）以来，新的观测证据进一步证明，全球气候系统变暖是毋庸置疑的事实。2012年之前的3个连续10年的全球地表平均气温，都比1850年以来任何一个10年更高，且可能是过去1400年来最热的30年。虽然1998—2012年全球地表增温速率趋缓，但还不能反映出气候变化的长期趋势。1970年以来海洋在变暖，海洋上层75 m以上的海水温度每10年升温幅度超过0.11℃；1971—2010年地球气候系统增加的净能量中，93%被海洋吸收。全球平均海平面上升速率加快，1993—2010年间高达3.2 mm/年。全球海洋的人为碳库很可能已增加，导致海洋表层水酸化。1971年以来，全球几乎所有冰川、格陵兰冰盖和南极冰盖的冰量都在损失。其中1979年以来北极海冰范围以每10年3.5%～4.1%的速率缩小，同期南极海冰范围以每10年1.2%～1.8%的速率增大。北半球积雪范围在缩小。20世纪80年代初以来，大多数地区的多年冻土温度升高。已在大气和海洋变暖、水循环变化、冰冻圈退缩、海平面上升和极端气候事件的变化中检测到人类活动影响的信号。1750年以来大气CO2浓度的增加是人为辐射强迫增加的主因，导致20世纪50年代以来50%以上的全球气候变暖，其信度超过95%。采用CMIP5模式和典型浓度路径（RCPs），预估本世纪末全球地表平均气温将继续升高，热浪、强降水等极端事件的发生频率将增加，降水将呈现“干者愈干、湿者愈湿”趋势。海洋上层的温度比1986—2005年间升高0.6～2.0℃，热量将从海表传向深海，并影响大洋环流，2100年海平面将上升0.26～0.82 m。冰冻圈将继续变暖。为控制气候变暖，人类需要减少温室气体排放。如果较工业化之前的温升达到2℃，全球年均经济损失将达到收入的0.2%～2.0%，并造成大范围不可逆的影响，导致死亡、疾病、食品安全、内陆洪涝、农村饮水和灌溉困难等问题，影响人类安全。但如果采取积极行动，2℃的温升目标仍可望达到。为遏制逐渐失控的全球变暖，需全球共同努力减排，以实现人类可持续发展的理想。

关键词：气候变化；全球变暖；影响；适应；脆弱性；减缓；可持续发展

来源出版物：地理科学进展, 2014, 33(7): 874-883

联系邮箱：秦大河，qdh@cma.gov.cn

近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述

高涛，谢立安

摘要：对中国近50年来极端降水事件的研究表明，在全球变暖背景下极端降水事件的频率和强度均有升高的趋势，但存在明显的区域差异。观测分析表明长江中下游，东南地区和西北的部分区域极端降水有增加趋势，而华北、东北和西南的部分地区有减少趋势。现阶段不同模式模拟的结果还存在差异，但总的预测结论表明中国极端降水有极化的趋势。首先从统计学角度通过分析均值和极值的关系，探讨了极端降水事件概念的界定，然后分析了不同区域极端降水的变化趋势。在综述中国极端降水研究的基础上，以极端降水变化趋势较为复杂的长江流域作为典型气候区，从海—气相互作用角度对影响极端降水的物理机制和过程进行了总结。分析表明能够反映极端降水本质特性的定义和影响极端降水的物理过程还需要进一步研究，并且随着研究深入，新的影响极端降水的因子也会被逐渐发现。

关键词：极端降水事件；全球气候变化；物理成因

来源出版物：地球科学进展, 2014, 29(5): 577-589

联系邮箱：谢立安，xie@ncsu.edu

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

Arnell, NW; Gosling, SN

Abstract: This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40% of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187% over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2of cropland, and the change in risk varies between -9 and +376%. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.

来源出版物：Climatic Change, 2016, 134(3): 387-401

联系邮箱：Arnell, NW; n.w.arnell@reading.ac.uk

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

Gosling, SN; Arnell, NW

Abstract: This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C.

来源出版物：Climatic Change, 2016, 134(3): 371-385

联系邮箱：Gosling, SN; simon.gosling@nottingham.ac.uk

Impact of climate change and water use policies on hydropower potential in the south-eastern Alpine region

Majone, B; Villa, F; Deidda, R; et al.

Abstract: Climate change is expected to cause alterations of streamflow regimes in the Alpine region, with possible relevant consequences for several socio-economic sectors including hydropower production. The impact of climate change on water resources and hydropower production is evaluated with reference to the Noce catchment, which is located in the Southeastern Alps, Italy. Projected changes of precipitation and temperature, derived from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) runs for the period 2040–2070

under the SRES A1B emission scenario, have been downscaled and bias corrected before using them as climatic forcing in a hydrological model. Projections indicate an increase of the mean temperature of the catchment in the range 2–4 K, depending on the climate model used. Projections of precipitation indicate an increase of annual precipitation in the range between 2% and 6% with larger changes in winter and autumn. Hydrological simulations show an increase of water yield during the period 2040–2070 with respect to 1970–2000. Furthermore, a transition from glacio-nival to nival regime is projected for the catchment. Hydrological regime is expected to change as a consequence of less winter precipitation falling as snow and anticipated melting in spring, with the runoff peak decreasing in intensity and anticipating from July to June. Changes in water availability reflect in the Technical Hydropower Potential (THP) of the catchment, with larger changes projected for the hydropower plants located at the highest altitudes. Finally, the impacts on THP of water use policies such as the introduction of prescriptions for minimum ecological flow (MEF) have been analyzed. Simulations indicate that in the lower part of the catchment reduction of the hydropower production due to MEF releases from the storage reservoirs counterbalances the benefits associated to the projected increases of inflows as foreseen by simulations driven only by climate change.

关键词：climate change impacts; alpine region; water use policies; water discharge alterations; hydropower potential

来源出版物：Science of the Total Environment, 2016, 543: 965-980

联系邮箱：Majone, B; bruno.majone@unitn.it

Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation: An analysis with REMIND

Bauer, N; Mouratiadou, I; Luderer, G; et al.

Abstract: We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes in coal, oil and gas markets induced by climate-change mitigation policies. A large share of fossil fuel reserves and resources will be used in the absence of climate policy leading to atmospheric GHG concentrations well beyond a level of 550 ppm CO2-eq. This result holds independently of different assumptions about energy demand and fossil fuel availability. Achieving ambitious climate targets will drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption, in particular the consumption of coal. Conventional oil and gas as well as non-conventional oil reserves are still exhausted. We find the net present value of fossil fuel rent until 2100 at 30tril.US$ with a large share of oil and a small share of coal. This is reduced by 9 and 12tril.US$ to achieve climate stabilization at 550 and 450 ppm CO2-eq, respectively. This loss is, however, overcompensated by revenues from carbon pricing that are 21 and 32tril.US$, respectively. The overcompensation also holds under variations of energy demand and fossil fuel supply.

来源出版物：Climatic Change, 2016, 136(1): 69-82

联系邮箱：Bauer, N; Nico.Bauer@pik-potsdam.de

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability

Kay, JE; Deser, C; Phillips, A; et al.

Abstract: While internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers contribute a small number of realizations to international climate model assessments [e.g., phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. As a result, model error and internal climate variability are difficult, and at times impossible, to disentangle. In response, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. All CESM-LE simulations use a single

CMIP5 model (CESM with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5). The core simulations replay the twenty to twenty-first century (1920–2100) 30 times under historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 external forcing with small initial condition differences. Two companion 1000±yr-long preindustrial control simulations (fully coupled, prognostic atmosphere and land only) allow assessment of internal climate variability in the absence of climate change. Comprehensive outputs, including many daily fields, are available as singlevariable time series on the Earth System Grid for anyone to use. Early results demonstrate the substantial influence of internal climate variability on twentieth- to twenty-first-century climate trajectories. Global warming hiatus decades occur, similar to those recently observed. Internal climate variability alone can produce projection spread comparable to that in CMIP5. Scientists and stakeholders can use CESM-LE outputs to help interpret the observational record, to understand projection spread and to plan for a range of possible futures influenced by both internal climate variability and forced climate change.

关键词：atmosphere-ocean interaction; walker circulation; sea surface temperature; thermocline circulation; albedo; paleoclimate

来源出版物：Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015, 96(8): 1333-1349

联系邮箱：Kay, JE; jennifer.e.kay@colorado.edu

The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2°C

McGlade, C; Ekins, P

Abstract: Policy makers have generally agreed that the average global temperature rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions should not exceed 2°C above the average global temperature of pre-industrial times. It has been estimated that to have at least a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2°C throughout the twenty-first century, the cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2). However, the greenhouse gas emissions contained in present estimates of global fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than this, and so the unabated use of all current fossil fuel reserves is incompatible with a warming limit of 2°C. Here we use a single integrated assessment model that contains estimates of the quantities, locations and nature of the world’s oil, gas and coal reserves and resources, and which is shown to be consistent with a wide variety of modelling approaches with different assumptions, to explore the implications of this emissions limit for fossil fuel production in different regions. Our results suggest that, globally, a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80 per cent of current coal reserves should remain unused from 2010 to 2050 in order to meet the target of 2°C. We show that development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incommensurate with efforts to limit average global warming to 2°C. Our results show that policy makers’ instincts to exploit rapidly and completely their territorial fossil fuels are, in aggregate, inconsistent with their commitments to this temperature limit. Implementation of this policy commitment would also render unnecessary continued substantial expenditure on fossil fuel exploration, because any new discoveries could not lead to increased aggregate production.

来源出版物：Nature, 2015, 517(7533): 187-190

联系邮箱：McGlade, C; christophe.mcglade@ucl.ac.uk

Physiological plasticity increases resilience of ectothermic animals to climate change

Seebacher, F; White, CR; Franklin, CE

Abstract: Understanding how climate change affects natural populations remains one of the greatest challenges for ecology and management of natural resources. Animals can remodel their physiology to compensate for the effects of temperature variation, and this physiological plasticity, or acclimation, can confer resilience to climate change. The current lack of a comprehensive analysis of the capacity for physiological plasticity across taxonomic groups and geographic regions, however, constrains predictions of the impacts of climate change. Here, we assembled the largest database to date to establish the current state of knowledge of physiological plasticity in ectothermic animals. We show that acclimation decreases the sensitivity to temperature and climate change of freshwater and marine animals, but less so in terrestrial animals. Animals from more stable environments have greater capacity for acclimation, and there is a significant

trend showing that the capacity for thermal acclimation increases with decreasing latitude. Despite the capacity for acclimation, climate change over the past 20 years has already resulted in increased physiological rates of up to 20%, and we predict further future increases under climate change. The generality of these predictions is limited, however, because much of the world is drastically undersampled in the literature, and these undersampled regions are the areas of greatest need for future research efforts.

来源出版物：Nature Climate Change, 2015, 5(1): 61-66

联系邮箱：Seebacher, F, frank.seebacher@sydney.edu.au

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

Kelley, CP; Mohtadi, S; Cane, MA; et al.

Abstract: Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

关键词：drought; Syria; climate change; unrest; conflict

来源出版物：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015, 112(11): 3241-3246

联系邮箱：Kelley, CP; colin.kelley@geog.ucsb.edu

Accelerating extinction risk from climate change

Urban, MC

Abstract: Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change–induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.

来源出版物：Science, 2015, 348(6234): 571-573

联系邮箱：Urban, MC; mark.urban@uconn.edu

Global warming and changes in drought

Trenberth, KE; Dai, AG; van der Schrier, G; et al.

Abstract: Several recently published studies have produced apparently conflicting results of how drought is changing under climate change. The reason is thought to lie in the formulation of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the data sets used to determine the evapotranspiration component. Here, we make an assessment of the issues with the PDSI in which several other sources of discrepancy emerge, not least how precipitation has changed and is analysed. As well as an improvement in the precipitation data available, accurate attribution of the causes of drought requires accounting for natural variability, especially El Niño/Southern Oscillation effects, owing to the predilection for wetter land during La Niña events. Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts but it is expected that when droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense.

来源出版物：Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(1): 17-22

联系邮箱：Trenberth, KE; trenbert@ucar.edu

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

Rosenzweig, C; Elliott, J; Deryng, D; et al.

Abstract: Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

来源出版物：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014, 111(9): 3268-3273

联系邮箱：Rosenzweig, C; cynthia.rosenzweig@nasa.gov

Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: The problem and the evidence

Merila, J; Hendry, AP

Abstract: Many studies have recorded phenotypic changes in natural populations and attributed them to climate change. However, controversy and uncertainty has arisen around three levels of inference in such studies. First, it has proven difficult to conclusively distinguish whether phenotypic changes are genetically based or the result of phenotypic plasticity. Second, whether or not the change is adaptive is usually assumed rather than tested. Third, inferences that climate change is the specific causal agent have rarely involved the testing – and exclusion – of other potential drivers. We here review the various ways in which the above inferences have been attempted, and evaluate the strength of support that each approach can provide. This methodological assessment sets the stage for 11 accompanying review articles that attempt comprehensive syntheses of what is currently known – and not known – about responses to climate change in a variety of taxa and in theory. Summarizing and relying on the results of these reviews, we arrive at the conclusion that evidence for genetic adaptation to climate change has been found in some systems, but is still relatively scarce. Most importantly, it is clear that more studies are needed – and these must employ better inferential methods – before general conclusions can be drawn. Overall, we hope that the present paper and special issue provide inspiration for future research and guidelines on best practices for its execution.

关键词：environmental change; evolution; genetics; global change; individual plasticity; natural selection

来源出版物：Evolutionary Applications, 2014, 7(1): 1-14

联系邮箱：Merila, J; juha.merila@helsinki.fi

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Schewe, J; Heinke, J; Gerten, D; et al.

Abstract: Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2°C above present (approximately 2.7°C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (＜500 m3per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the

steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2°C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

关键词：climate impacts; hydrological modeling; Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

来源出版物：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014, 111(9): 3245-3250

联系邮箱：Schewe, J; jacob.schewe@pik-potsdam.de

EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

Jacob, D; Petersen, J; Eggert, B; et al.

Abstract: A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.

关键词：regional climate change; impact indices; EUROCORDEX; heat wave; heavy precipitation; dry spells

来源出版物：Regional Environmental Change, 2014, 14(2): 563-578

联系邮箱：Jacob, D; daniela.jacob@hzg.de

编辑：王微

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文章题目第一作者来源出版物1 Potential impact of climate change on world food supply Rosenzweig, C Nature, 1994, 367(6459): 133-138 2 Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming Davis, AJ Nature, 1998, 391(6669): 783-786 3 Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants Root, TL Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 57-60 4 A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems Parmesan, C Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 37-42 5 Extinction risk from climate change Thomas, CD Nature, 2004, 427(6970): 145-148

Potential impact of climate change on world food supply

Rosenzweig, C; Parry, ML