The International Security Situation in 2023: Seeking Order Change and Reshaping Amidst Turbulence and Uncertainty

Tang Yongsheng

Continued Tensions in Relations Among the major countries

In 2023, the international and regional security situation underwent complex and profound changes, with security threats continuing to diversify and the use of force to settle disputes increasing. Conflicts and disputes in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and other regions are recurring and difficult to quell, and instability and uncertainty on a global scale have increased. Relations among major countries continue to be tense due to factors such as the regional turmoil and intensification of strategic competition among major countries by the United States. In its National Security Strategy released in 2022, the Biden administration characterized China as “the only competitor with both strategic intent and a growing capacity to reshape the international order”, and in its National Defense Strategy released that year, it further positioned China as “the most important strategic competitor”. The U.S. defense budget reached $857.9 billion in fiscal year 2023, and it is expected to increase to $886 billion in 2024, with the Biden administration and Congress agreeing to continue to raise the defense budget. The U.S. national security strategy makes clear decisions to curb the development of competitors through investment, alliances and competition. It will undoubtedly deteriorate the international security situation, stimulate other countries to increase military spending, and even the existence of a huge risk of triggering arms race.

Since 2009, the U.S. has suspended the implementation of some provisions of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). On November 2, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree formally withdrawing his ratification of the CTBT, and thus the U.S.-Russian issue surrounding the ban on nuclear testing entering a new round of games. On November 7, 2023, Russia withdrew from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), and the U.S. and NATO subsequently announced a suspension of their participation in the CFE Treaty. Although the actual impact of the above initiatives still needs to be tracked and assessed, there is no doubt that the international arms control system is under risk. There should be necessary rules and treaties among major countries to maintain stable relations, and relying too much on deterrence is not a foolproof option and will bring damage to global strategic stability.

NATOs relationship with Russia continues to be tense, especially after NATO absorbed Finland in 2023. The United States signed defense agreements with Sweden and Finland, accelerated military cooperation with Nordic countries and NATO allies, stepped up strategic deployment in the Arctic region, and made great efforts to exaggerate the major countries rivalry in order to compete for polar resources and strategic advantages. In addition, starting from November 2023, Finland will gradually close all its border crossings with Russia, a decision that not only caters to the needs of the United States, but also show intentions of geopolitical competition which further isolated Russia. After Finlands above decision, both Norway and Estonia have stated that they are closely monitoring the situation in Finland and do not rule out the closure of border crossings with Russia as well. In fact, after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, Russias bilateral relations with most of the EU and NATO countries, including the Baltic states, have fallen to their lowest point since the end of the Cold War.

The Biden administration has actively strengthened relations with its allies, downplaying differences while emphasizing common interests, but the U.S. and its allies still have problems of poorly-defined responsibilities and uneven distribution of benefits. The use of alliances is a means for the United States to achieve its own goals, but its capriciousness makes it difficult for the allies to maintain lasting and sufficient confidence in U.S. commitments. Although policy coordination and operational cooperation between the U.S. and Europe will continue under the stimulus of the Ukraine crisis, the inherent contradictions between the two sides in terms of the distribution of defense responsibilities and major concerns have not been eliminated. The more protracted the Ukraine crisis, the more European countries would come to realize that following the United States does not fundamentally solve their own security concerns, and a byproduct of supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia is that Europe must pay a heavier price. The diversification of interests and needs will lead to more disputes within the alliance, which is also the main manifestation of the alliances predicament.

In 2023, the U.S. continued to promote the Indo-Pacific Strategy, emphasizing the integrated use of military and non-military means, mobilizing its own forces and those of its allies, and creating integrated deterrence and greater strategic advantage. On August 23, the leaders of the United States, Japan and South Korea met at Camp David and subsequently issued the Camp David Principles, the Consultation Pact, and the Spirit of Camp David: U.S.-Japan-South Korea Joint Statement, emphasizing that the United States, Japan and the Republic of Korea “need to be united and coordinate their actions” at the turning point in history, such as geostrategic rivalry, the climate crisis, the situation in Ukraine, and the test of nuclear provocations. Recently, some European countries have become increasingly involved in Asia-Pacific affairs. On December 14, 2023, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan signed an agreement on the joint development of the next-generation stealth fighter, combining the British-led Storm fighter program with Japans F-X fighter program to develop a sixth-generation fighter. In view of the rising concern of the United States about the Indo-Pacific region, especially China, it has become an important move for extra-territorial countries such as the United Kingdom to demonstrate their presence in this region.

In fact, in the era of profound changes in the international system and accelerated dispersion of power, power politics and alliance confrontation will undoubtedly be subject to increasing restrictions, and it is increasingly difficult to converge the interests of member states within the alliance. The strengthening of the U.S. alliance system has magnified and intensified the conflict of interests among countries, seriously deteriorated the security situation in the European region and the Asia-Pacific region, and caused international and regional security cooperation to suffer a serious impact. In the face of the pressure and impact brought about by the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, China has maintained sufficient strategic consistency and avoided being caught up in the vortex of a new Cold War, so as to prevent the regional security structure being torn apart nor forming opposing camps. Maintaining basic stability in major country relations is in the fundamental interests of regional countries and the international community as a whole. Positive dialogue and communication is conducive to promoting the predictable development of major country relations, and the U.S. should be urged to put into practice its promises that it “does not seek a new Cold War” and “does not seek to oppose China by strengthening alliances” and “has no intention of engaging in conflict with China”.

Regional Conflicts Intensify and War Patterns Escalate

In 2023, the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the resurgence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have exacerbated divisions in the international community, with important implications for international security.

The stalemate in the Ukraine crisis has been accompanied by an intensification of the major-country competition behind it. The U.S. has openly increased its assistance to Ukraine and is conducting a proxy war in Ukraine through alliance relations, but the outcome is uncertain and affected by many factors. The Ukraine crisis has further torn apart the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe and put a heavy burden on many countries concerned, including European countries. The Ukraine crisis has also shown that, in the current international context, traditional military means cannot effectively resolve geopolitical conflicts, and it is difficult to transform a purely military victory into political and economic gains.

In addition to the Ukraine crisis, the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict has also attracted extensive attention from the international community. On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) launched a military operation code-named “Al-Aqsa Floods”, a surprise attack on Israel. Subsequently, Israel declared a state of war and its Defense Forces launched a military operation against the Gaza Strip. This round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict resulted in heavy casualties, including a large number of women and children. The course of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has shown that the Gaza issue involves long-standing territorial disputes, ethnic conflicts and religious strife between the Palestinians and Israelis, even in the Middle East region, and cannot be resolved by either Israel or Palestine alone. The United States, after its strategic contraction from the Middle East, is unable to cope with the current chaotic and complicated situation in the Middle East, and its Middle East policy, which has always been biased in favor of Israel, is being more and more questioned and challenged. In any case, both sides in the conflict should realize a cease-fire as soon as possible, so as to create conditions for negotiations and resolution through political means. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has caused a certain impact on the wave of reconciliation in the Middle East, but in the long run, easing of the geopolitical tension in the Middle East is in line with the fundamental interests of the countries in the region, and is also the intrinsic demand of the countries concerned.

The performance of the United States in the Ukraine crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict reflects the increasing futility of its efforts to maintain hegemony. Despite the support of the United States and NATO, Ukraine is still struggling on the battlefield and faces the dilemma of possible defeat if it loses external assistance. The U.S. bias in favor of Israel and its disregard for Palestinian sovereignty and the right to exist in the Middle East will undoubtedly bring more uncertainty to the security of the Middle East, as it remains only at the level of stating its position on a just solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the implementation of the “two-state solution”. The root cause of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is the historical grievances between the two sides, but it is also closely related to the imbalance of the U.S. Middle East policy, which is the most important external factor.

In the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, there have been new changes in the shape of war. On the one hand, traditional military means still play the role, and the two sides of the confrontation compete fiercely in positional battles and neighborhood offensives and defenses; on the other hand, advanced military technology and equipment have been used more often. U.S. and NATO military assistance, especially intelligence and information support, has not only enabled Ukraine to stabilize its position, but also caused Russia a lot of trouble. Russia is also trying to use information technology to interfere with the other side, and has worked hard to improve the accuracy of its own weapons strikes, repeatedly using hypersonic weapons to strike important Ukrainian military targets. Although the Ukrainian navy suffered heavy losses early in the conflict, it successfully utilized unmanned boats to greatly limit the range of activities of the Russian Black Sea fleet. In response, Russia is also developing unmanned boats for targeted operations. The increasingly widespread use of unmanned equipment and artificial intelligence represents an important trend in the military revolution.

In recent years, space, network, artificial intelligence and many other areas of emerging science and technology continue to make breakthroughs, military security space is constantly extended to these new areas, with military competetion expanding from three-dimensional space to multi-dimensional space, from the tangible field to the intangible field. The right to information, space, and data as well as the dominant position in the field of intelligence will become a new key element to win the war. In connection with this, the system of military force is also undergoing revolutionary changes. New types of fields have become the main carriers of new combat power, a new growth space for military forces to realize leapfrog development, and a multiplier of traditional military forces, which will have a critical tractive effect in the current and future wars. Some trends have already emerged. For example, the possession of the necessary network attack and defense capabilities has become a fundamental and decisive condition for a country to wage military system confrontations. Unmanned combat systems have greatly enhanced the level of intelligence in military operations, and hypersonic weapons will be used as an important force in the implementation of strategic strikes. With the rising importance of new fields and the rapid development of new types of forces, new military types and branches will continue to emerge and be integrated into the military force system. For example, the cyber and space forces will be even more critical and important than the traditional military services and become the main combat force; and such forms of force as drone forces, robot forces and intelligent combat forces will also emerge and be rapidly developed after being tested in crises and conflicts.

The extensive and profound military changes that have been taking place in recent years are reflected not only in the rapid advances in military science and technology, weapons and equipment, but also in the continuous innovation of military theories and the profound changes in the military system. To this end, the worlds major countries are exploring and studying the characteristics and laws of informatization and even intelligent warfare, daring to make innovations and breakthroughs, striving to follow the trend of the development of the military revolution, and promoting the continuous development of military theory and practice. New fields of combat and combat styles should also be the focus of military development. The Ukraine crisis, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the previous war in Syria all reflect changes in the shape of war, and it is especially important not to overlook the fact that the so-called “hybrid war” has become one of the most important features. It also confirms the discussions on “hybrid war” that have been taking place at home and abroad for some time now, and demonstrates the important trend of expanding the military struggle into broader areas and spaces. Outer space and cyberspace have become the new frontiers of military competition among the major countries, and as a result, their status in international competition is constantly rising. Network attack and defense and space attack and defense are likely to become important combat styles in future wars, and such a trend has already been manifested in some current regional conflicts.

Long Way to Go in Advancing Global Security Governance

2023 is rife with tension, violence, and insecurity, but the international security situation is generally not out of control, and there are both conflicting interests and coordinated and cooperation among major countries.

In March 2023, former U.S. Secretary of State Kissinger noted in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Mundo that a second Cold War between the United States and China would be far more dangerous than the first, and that the two countries had a minimum common obligation to prevent catastrophic conflict. U.S.-China relations have fallen to their lowest ebb since the establishment of diplomatic relations, but remain generally manageable, with both sides holding the strategic forces necessary to maintain the basic stability of their relationship. As long as the relationship is not fundamentally shaken, the two sides will eventually return to coordination and cooperation. In November 15th, 2023, the San Francisco meeting between the U.S. and Chinese heads of state has led to a de-escalating trend in the relationship after persistent tensions, with both sides engaging in limited coordination and cooperation on specific matters. Against the backdrop of the profound changes unfolding in the world and increasing instability and uncertainty, how the U.S.-China relationship fares will determine the future direction of the world.

However, extremism is still prevalent in some regions and countries, and terrorist activities remain at a high level. These realities fully illustrate that there are contradictions and conflicts in the existing international system that are more complex and profound than generally imagined. Responding to global and transnational threats and challenges requires joint efforts and contributions of more countries to actively promote changes in the international security order in order to achieve sustainable security worldwide. Historical development will further prove that no country can dominate all international affairs and monopolize all opportunities for development, and that hegemony is unpopular and will harm the initiators. Promoting the construction and innovation of the international security order and realizing an effective balance between system supply and security needs constitute a promising direction for international cooperation.

The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran is an important development in security cooperation in the Middle East and even in international security governance. In March 2023, China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran issued a joint statement in which Saudi Arabia and Iran reached an agreement, in which both sides agreed to restore diplomatic relations, to reopen their embassies and representative offices in each others countries and to dispatch ambassadors, to explore the strengthening of bilateral relations. The three countries expressed their willingness to make every effort to strengthen international and regional security. The “Beijing rapprochement” between Saudi Arabia and Iran marks a new opportunity for the two Middle Eastern countries, which have been opposed by a series of complex factors such as historical issues, geopolitical relations and sectarian conflicts, to develop good-neighborly and friendly relations. China has played a positive and constructive role in the reconciliation process.

China pursues national security under open conditions. Reform and opening up have pushed Chinas relations with the outside world into a predictable process of benign interaction, and more countries and people will increasingly and genuinely feel the benefits that can be brought about by Chinese-style modernization, and feel that China is an important force in maintaining international security and global strategic stability, as well as an important driving force in promoting regional and world growth. On February 21, 2023, China formally released the Global Security Initiative Concept Paper, advocating a new security path of dialogue rather than confrontation, partnership rather than alliance, and win-win rather than zero-sum. The Global Security Initiative adheres to the principle of openness and inclusiveness and provides an important public good for international security. The Global Security Initiative clearly emphasizes adherence to a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable concept of security, respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, compliance with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, attention to the legitimate security concerns of all countries, the settlement of differences and disputes among countries through peaceful means of dialogue and consultation, and the integrated maintenance of security in both the traditional and non-traditional spheres. These principles complement each other and constitute a complete system by closely combining the theoretical with the practical. The Global Security Initiative responds to the universal aspirations of the international community and provides an innovative concept and an effective way to realize sustainable security in a world beset by turmoil.

Although international security governance has encountered serious challenges, it also faces new opportunities. In the midst of the profound changes in the world, every country needs to re-define its role and positioning. At present and for some time to come, competitions on international order and related institutional arrangements will continue and become more intense. However, the international order can promote the development and progress of global politics by becoming inclusive and fundamentally impartial. Promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind is a sure way to build a world of lasting peace. The current increase in turbulence and insecurity also illustrates the need to introduce changes and innovations to the unreasonable and inadequate arrangements of the previous order in order to maintain strategic stability and realize common security. The Global Security Initiative provides Chinas solutions to the challenges of global and regional security, and also identifies feasible ways and means to realize the organic unity of our own security and common security.

A great nation should have the responsibility and bearing fitting its status. Looking ahead to the new year, China will engage in more positive strategic interactions with the outside world, promote the development of new types of international relations, and provide more public goods within its capacity, while at the same time focusing on innovating its national development model and upgrading its national governance capacity, so as to lay a solid foundation for the realization of the countrys long-term stability and security, provide new impetus for alleviating and eliminating the deficit in global governance, and promote international cooperation in solving the security problems. In recent years, China has also focused on increasing its efforts to constructively develop its relations with neighboring countries, and in this way, it has been able to steer the direction of the development of major countries relations, especially the China-U.S. relationship. Despite the current recurrence of globalization and even local regression, strengthening global governance and regional integration remains an urgent and important task for all countries. The rise and fall of hegemony has become obsolete, and it is counterproductive to seek to maintain the original hegemonic advantages or to strive to become a new hegemony, and could even be punished by history. Admist the great changes, the risks of chaos have increased, but the needs of the peoples of the world for peace and development have not diminished, and have become more pronounced and urgent, also international security has encountered major challenges while opening up a new space for cooperation.

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Tang Yongsheng is Professor of School of National Security at the National Defense University